"This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

So said Churchill, talking about the second battle of El Alamein, a turning point in the Second World War. We wonder if the same could perhaps be said of the recession.

Like the beleaguered Britons of Churchill's day, we haven't had too much to cheer about in the last year or two. Many businesses have closed, including a number of household names. Many people have lost their jobs; at the beginning of this year, UK unemployment went through the two million mark for the first time since 1997, and we remain on the wrong side of that dismal marker.

At last, though, there are signs that things may be turning around. One important factor is people's confidence. v A year ago, the 'feel good' indicator, as measured by a YouGov poll, pointed straight to doom and gloom at minus 67 points. A similar poll, published at the end of August this year, showed that the number was 53 points higher. Admittedly it was still negative, at minus 14: but nearly two thirds of people polled now think that their financial situation will either stay the same or get better over the next 12 months.

Earlier in August, France and Germany surprised most analysts by emerging from their recessions, with both economies growing by 0.3 per cent between April and June. And while the eurozone as a whole still saw economic activity fall by 0.1 per cent over those three months, this is much better than the 2.5 per cent drop recorded in the first three months of 2009.

Of course, only the wildest of optimists would believe that all our problems are now over, and that a massive boom is about to flood our lives with sunlight. There will still be difficulties to face.

But if, as we believe, the worst really is over, that will make all the difference. Businesses will start to feel more confident. They will begin to start spending again on marketing, advertising and even recruitment. And that will be good news for everyone.

If the fat lady hasn't exactly burst into song yet, it looks as though she is at least warming up her voice.